A 25 basis point hike on a $20M hotel loan adds $333 per room in annual debt service, and that's the easy part to model. The interest rate caps expiring across 2025 and 2026 are the line item most owners haven't stress-tested yet.
WTI blew past $100 on March 9 before settling around $86, but the damage to forward assumptions is already done. The real number isn't the barrel price... it's the 375 basis point spread on hotel mortgage debt that just became a lot harder to refinance.
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