The Fed held at 3.75%, futures are pricing higher by year-end, and that $20M floating-rate loan you underwrote in 2023 is quietly eating your NOI from the inside. The owners who haven't stress-tested their debt stack against a flat-to-rising rate environment are about to learn what "recalibration" actually costs.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% last week, but four FOMC members dissented for the first time in over 30 years, and market odds now price a hike above 50% by early 2027. If you're carrying floating-rate hotel debt originated in 2021–2023, the assumptions baked into your pro forma are about to get tested.
March CPI just printed at 3.3% and the Fed is now discussing hikes instead of cuts. If your hotel acquisition was underwritten assuming SOFR would be 150-200 basis points lower by now, the refinancing math isn't tight... it's broken.
