The Fed is signaling another rate hike with SOFR already at 3.63%, and any hotel owner carrying floating-rate debt who hasn't stress-tested against a 4% federal funds rate by year-end is managing by hope, not by math.
Congress is moving on federal minimum wage legislation, and the per-property payroll impact at a 150-room select-service hotel runs $160,000 to $374,000 annually before benefits load. The owners who model this before the vote will negotiate from strength; the ones who wait will negotiate from panic.
Hotel owners who underwrote refinancing, PIP financing, or development deals assuming H2 2026 rate relief are staring at a 3.5%-3.75% federal funds rate that isn't moving... and the math on their desks just broke.
